F1 Season Analytics Β· 2026

The new era of
Formula 1
in data.

Real data for Data and AI enthusiasts.

5
GPs analyzed
5
Antonelli wins
180
Mercedes pts
19
Age: championship leader
⚑The 2026 Technical EraREG. 2026
// 50% electric hybrid Β· Cars 30% smaller than 2025 Β· Active wings
πŸ”‹
Equal Hybrid Power
The combustion engine and the energy recovery system each deliver 50% of the total power β€” around 850 horsepower combined. When both are at full output, the acceleration is unlike anything seen in F1 before.
βš–οΈ
Energy Trade-off
Activating the overtake boost drains the battery fast. Once empty, the car loses around 170 horsepower instantly β€” a massive deficit. Teams must manage this trade-off on every lap.
πŸ‘
Active Aerodynamics
The front and rear wings move automatically depending on the corner. This replaces the old manual DRS system, making overtaking more organic but also more complex to master.
πŸ‘”
Power Unit Reliability
McLaren and Red Bull had significant reliability issues in the first 5 races. Red Bull retired twice with Hadjar (AUS and MIA), started last in one race, and received a 5s penalty in Miami with Verstappen.
β–Έ THE OVERTAKE BOOST DILEMMA
πŸ”Ί
Activate: The car accelerates ~25 km/h faster on the straight. Overtaking becomes much easier.
πŸ”»
Consequence: Battery drains quickly. For the next 3 to 5 laps the car runs without the electric boost β€” rivals can overtake back just as easily.
πŸ“Š
2026 example: Verstappen used the overtake boost 11 times in China β€” ran out of electric power in the final laps and lost several positions.

GP Results

πŸ”΄ LIVE DATA
Compare GPs:
Round 05 Β· 24 May 2026πŸ”΄ MAIS RECENTEπŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦
Canadian GP
Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve Β· Montreal Β· 70 laps Β· Sunny
πŸ† P1
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
💸 P2
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari
💹 P3
Max Verstappen
Red Bull Racing
PDriverGridGapPts
1Kimi Antonelli21:28:15.75825
2Lewis Hamilton5+10.768s18
3Max Verstappen6+11.276s15
4Charles Leclerc8+44.151s12
5Isack Hadjar7+1 Lap10
6Franco Colapinto10+1 Lap8
7Liam Lawson12+1 Lap6
8Pierre Gasly14+1 Lap4
9Carlos Sainz Jr.15+1 Lap2
10Oliver Bearman16+1 Lap1
11Oscar Piastri4+2 Laps0
12Nico HΓΌlkenberg11+2 Laps0
13Gabriel Bortoleto13+2 Laps0
14Esteban Ocon17+2 Laps0
15Lance StrollPL+4 Laps0
16Valtteri Bottas21+4 Laps0
DNFSergio PΓ©rez20Suspension0
DNFLando Norris3Gearbox0
DNFGeorge Russell1Power Unit0
DNFFernando Alonso19Seat Issue0
DNFAlex Albon18Collision0
DNSArvid Lindblad9Clutch0
⚹ Norris: 5s for causing collision with Albon at Turn 10. Lindblad: 3-grid penalty for Canada for causing collision with Piastri in Sprint. Pérez: 10s for track limits at Turns 7, 8, 9.

Analysis: Antonelli secured his fourth consecutive victory after Russell retired from the lead with a power unit failure on lap 30. Hamilton earned his best finish for Ferrari, executing a late-race overtake on Verstappen for P2. This marked Verstappen's first podium of the 2026 season. McLaren's strategic gamble on intermediate tires on a drying track backfired, burying both Norris and Piastri down the order.

Round 01 Β· 08 Mar 2026πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί
Australian GP
Albert Park Β· Melbourne Β· 58 laps Β· Dry
πŸ† P1
Russell
Mercedes
💸 P2
Antonelli
Mercedes
💹 P3
Leclerc
Ferrari
PDriverGridGapPts
1G. RussellP1β€”25
2K. AntonelliP2+2.974s18
3C. LeclercP4+15.519s15
4L. HamiltonP5+16.144s12
5L. NorrisP6+51.741s10
6M. VerstappenFLP20+54.617s8
7O. BearmanP7+1 lap6
8A. LindbladP8+1 lap4
9G. BortoletoP9+1 lap2
10P. GaslyP10+1 lap1
DNFI. HadjarP11Motorβ€”
DNSO. Piastriβ€”Crash before startβ€”

Analysis: Russell converted pole position into victory with a clean single pit stop strategy. Ferrari stayed out during both safety car periods and lost ground to Mercedes who pitted. Verstappen started last after a qualifying crash and recovered to 6th, setting the fastest lap on lap 43.

Round 05 Β· 23 May 2026⚑ Sprint RaceπŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦
Canadian GP Sprint
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve Β· Montreal, Canada Β· 15 laps Β· Dry
πŸ† P1
Russell
Mercedes
💸 P2
Norris
McLaren
💹 P3
Antonelli
Mercedes
PDriverGridGapPts
1G. RussellP1β€”8
2L. NorrisP3+1.272s7
3K. AntonelliP2+1.843s6
4O. PiastriP4+9.797s5
5C. LeclercP6+9.929s4
6L. HamiltonP5+10.545s3
7M. VerstappenP7+15.935s2
8A. LindbladP9+29.710s1
9F. ColapintoP13+31.621s0
10C. SainzP10+36.793s0
11L. LawsonP18+61.344s0
12G. BortoletoP12+61.814s0
13E. OconP14+74.209s0
14S. PerezP16+70.402s0
15N. HulkenbergP11+72.158s0
16L. StrollP15+1 Lap0
17V. BottasPL+1 Lap0
18O. BearmanPL+1 Lap0
19A. AlbonPL+1 Lap0
20P. GaslyPL+1 Lap0
21I. HadjarP8+1 Lap0

Sprint Analysis: Sprint race with intra-team Mercedes battle. George Russell held off Kimi Antonelli for the win, while Lando Norris capitalized on the drama for second place.

Round 02 Β· 15 Mar 2026⚑ Sprint WeekendπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
Chinese GP
Shanghai Β· Shanghai Β· 56 laps Β· Dry
πŸ† P1
Antonelli
Mercedes
💸 P2
Russell
Mercedes
💹 P3
Hamilton
Ferrari
PDriverGridGapPts
1K. AntonelliFLP1β€”25
2G. RussellP2+5.515s18
3L. HamiltonP5+25.267s15
4C. LeclercP3+28.894s12
5O. BearmanP4+57.268s10
6P. GaslyP6+59.647s8
7L. LawsonP9+1m20s6
8I. HadjarP7+1m27s4
9C. SainzP10+1 lap2
10F. ColapintoP14+1 lap1
DNFM. VerstappenP8Power Unitβ€”
DNSNorris/Piastriβ€”Electrical failureβ€”

Analysis: Antonelli converted pole into victory, becoming the second youngest winner in Formula 1 history. Hamilton achieved his first podium with Ferrari. Both McLarens failed to start due to electrical failures. A safety car triggered by Stroll created a strategic split β€” teams that pitted immediately gained a massive advantage.

Round 03 Β· 30 Mar 2026πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅
Japanese GP
Suzuka Β· Suzuka Β· 53 laps Β· Dry
πŸ† P1
Antonelli
Mercedes
💸 P2
Piastri
McLaren
💹 P3
Leclerc
Ferrari
PDriverGridGapPts
1K. AntonelliFLP1β€”25
2O. PiastriP3+13.722s18
3C. LeclercP4~+15s15
4G. RussellP2~+16s12
5L. NorrisP5~+30s10
6L. HamiltonP6~+35s8
7P. GaslyP7~+45s6
8M. VerstappenP11~+50s4
9L. LawsonP14+1 lap2
10E. OconP12+1 lap1
18F. AlonsoP21+1 lapβ€”
DNFO. BearmanP1850G V.22β€”
DNFL. StrollP22H2O Pressureβ€”

Analysis: Antonelli started from pole but lost places at the start due to wheelspin, dropping to 6th on lap 1. A safety car on lap 22, triggered by Bearman\u2019s heavy crash at 50G, allowed Antonelli to pit for free and emerge in the lead. Piastri had led for 22 laps and was on course to win before the safety car changed everything. FL: Antonelli 1:32.432 (lap 49).

Round 04 Β· 03 May 2026⚑ Sprint WeekendπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Miami GP
Miami International Autodrome Β· Miami Β· 57 laps Β· Dry
⚑ Novas Regras FIA β€” VigΓͺncia a partir do GP de Miami
QUALIFYING
Limite de recarga por volta reduzido de 8MJ -> 7MJ. Menos energia para recuperar = pilotos exploram mais o carro.
RACE β€” BOOST
Botao de ultrapassagem (boost) limitado a +150 kW. Evita diferencas bruscas de velocidade.
MGU-K ZONAL
250 kW for the rest of the lap. More predictable power delivery.
LAUNCH DETECTION
Flashing lights warn drivers behind.
Source: FIA β€” FIA Statement 20/04/2026
πŸ† P1
Antonelli
Mercedes
💸 P2
Norris
McLaren
💹 P3
Piastri
McLaren
PDriverGridGapPts
1K. AntonelliP1β€”25
2L. NorrisP4+3.264s18
3O. PiastriP3+27.092s15
4G. RussellP6+43.051s12
5M. VerstappenP2+48.949s10
6L. HamiltonP7+53.753s8
7F. ColapintoP14+1'01.871s6
8C. LeclercP5+1'04.245s4
9C. SainzP9+1'22.072s2
10A. AlbonP8+1'30.972s1
DNFI. HadjarP11Accident V.5β€”
DNFP. GaslyP13Flip crash lap 7β€”
DNFL. LawsonP12Gearbox/Collisionβ€”
DNFN. HulkenbergP16Mechanicalβ€”
⚹ Post-race penalties: Leclerc +20s (left track and gained advantage) \u00b7 Verstappen +5s (pit lane white line, no position change)

Analysis: Antonelli converted pole into a dominant victory under the new 7MJ qualifying rules. Norris recovered from a boost issue on lap 1 to pressure the leader until the finish. Piastri held 3rd despite a two-stop strategy. Safety car on lap 7 (Gasly flip + Hadjar crash) decided the race β€” those who pitted immediately under SC gained massive track position.

Sprint Analysis: Antonelli won the 19-lap sprint dominantly. Russell P2, Leclerc P3. Norris had the best outright pace but strategy differences decided the result.

Championship Standings

Drivers β€” Top 105 GPs + 1 Sprint
1
Kimi AntonelliMercedes
131
2
George RussellMercedes
88
3
Charles LeclercFerrari
75
4
Lewis HamiltonFerrari
72
5
Lando NorrisMcLaren
58
6
Oscar PiastriMcLaren
48
7
Max VerstappenRed Bull
43
8
Pierre GaslyAlpine
20
9
Oliver BearmanHaas
18
10
Liam LawsonRacing Bulls
16
11
Franco ColapintoAlpine
15
12
Isack HadjarRed Bull
12
13
Carlos SainzWilliams
10
14
Gabriel BortoletoAudi
6
15
Nico HulkenbergAudi
4
16
Esteban OconHaas
2
17
Sergio PerezCadillac
1
18
Alex AlbonWilliams
1
19
Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls
1
Constructors11 teams
1
Mercedes219
2
Ferrari147
3
McLaren106
4
Red Bull57
5
Alpine35
6
Racing Bulls21
7
Haas20
8
Williams11
9
Audi6
10
Aston Martin0
11
Cadillac1

Position Changes Per Lap

Position Trajectory β€” by Race
// Line going down = rising in the standings. Red bands = safety car period.
Russell
Antonelli
Leclerc
Hamilton
Verstappen
Norris

Biggest Position Changes

M. VerstappenπŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUS
P20β†’P6+14 pos

Eliminated in qualifying after a crash. In the race, with fresher tyres than rivals and a fully charged electric system in the final laps, he set the fastest lap (lap 43). Long battle with Norris.

C. LeclercπŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUS
P4β†’P1β†’P3Perdeu lideranca

Leclerc led after a great start. Ferrari chose not to pit during the two safety car periods β€” lost position to Mercedes who did. Despite having newer tyres at the end, could not recover.

O. PiastriπŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JPN
P3β†’P1β†’P2Led 22 laps

Best launch of the entire grid: started 3rd and jumped to 1st on lap 1. Led for 22 laps. Lost victory because of the safety car on lap 22 β€” had pitted one lap earlier and missed the free window. Driver of the Day.

K. AntonelliπŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JPN
P1β†’P6β†’P1Recuperacao via SC

Started from pole but wheelspin on the launch dropped him to 6th on lap 1. Actively recovered through the field and pitted under the safety car to emerge in the lead β€” converted pole into his first F1 victory.

M. VerstappenπŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JPN
P11β†’P8+3 pos

Eliminated in the second qualifying session at Suzuka. Limited recovery in the race β€” Red Bull was visibly slower than Alpine and Haas.

F. ColapintoπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ CHN
P14β†’P10+4 pos

Started 14th. Benefited from Ocon penalty to reach 10th. Alpine scored double points in China.

C. LeclercπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIA
P3β†’P1β†’P8Penalidade 20s

Started P3, led to lap 4. Finished 3rd on track but received 20s post-race penalty for cutting the track repeatedly after his spin, dropping from P3 to P8.

L. NorrisπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIA
P4β†’P2+2 pos

Started P4 with a boost issue. Recovered to lead part of the race and pressured Antonelli to the final metres. Won the Sprint the day before β€” McLaren had the fastest outright race pace in Miami.

F. ColapintoπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIA
P8β†’P7+1 pos

Started P8 in a strong grid. Benefited from the SC on lap 7 and retirements of Gasly and Lawson. Scored 6 points in Miami, reaching 7 total. Consistent performance for Alpine in his second season.

Accumulated Points β€” Top 8 Drivers
// After 5 GPs Β· AUS + CHN + JPN + MIA + CAN Β· Season 2026
100
80
59
51
51
43
26
17
AntonelliRussellLeclercHamiltonNorrisPiastriVerstappenBearman
🏎
Mercedes Dominance
5/5 GPs

Winners of all 5 races. ANT 4 wins + RUS 1. 72 points ahead of Ferrari in constructors.

⚑
Antonelli
4 GP Wins

4 consecutive GP wins, 1 Sprint. Championship leader by 43 points over Russell after Canada (131 vs 88).

πŸ’”
McLaren
0β†’P2

Piastri completed zero laps in the first two races. In Japan he finished 2nd. In Canada both McLarens suffered with intermediate strategy.

πŸ“‰
Red Bull
57 pts

Verstappen: last in Australia, retired in China, 8th in Japan, P3 in Canada β€” first podium of 2026. Red Bull showing signs of recovery.

πŸ“Έ
Safety Car Decides
5/5 SCs

All 5 races had a safety car that changed the result. The pit stop timing during the SC is the most critical strategic variable of 2026.

πŸ₯…
Alonso
1st Race

Completed his first race of 2026 in Suzuka, finishing 18th. He became a father for the first time the same week.

Lap Analytics and Statistical Outliers

Fastest Laps
// Fastest lap per race
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUS β€” Verstappen
1:22.091V.43 Β· +1pt (no Top 10)
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ CHN β€” Antonelli
1:35.275V.52 Β· +1pt
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JPN β€” Antonelli
1:32.432V.49 Β· +1pt
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIA β€” Antonelli
1:29.451V.45 Β· +1pt
Average lap time AUS (Top 3)
~1:21.8s
Average lap time CHN (Top 3)
~1:36.5s
Average lap time JPN (Top 3)
~1:33.8s
Average lap time MIA (Top 3)
~1:30.4s
Most consistent (5 GPs)
Antonelliσ médio = 0.8s

Analysis: Fastest Laps always occur in the final phase (100% ERS + fresh tyres + minimum fuel). Verstappen AUS, Antonelli CHN/JPN/MIA. Drivers outside the top 10 often attempt the FL for the +1 bonus point.

Statistical Outliers
// Deviations from normal lap time distribution
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Worst lap (VSC)
~1:48s+26s vs ritmo
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Worst lap (SC+Pit)
~2:05s+29s
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Worst lap (SC lap 22)
~2:10sCrash 50G
Οƒ laps AUS
Β±1.4s
Οƒ laps CHN
Β±1.7s
Οƒ laps JPN
Β±1.6s
PΓ³s-Overtake Mode CHN
+1.2s/vERS drenado
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Worst lap (SC lap 7)
~2:05sGasly flip
Οƒ laps MIA
Β±1.9s
Penalidade Leclerc MIA
+20sP3β†’P8

Maximum causal outlier 2026: SC lap 22 JPN (Bearman 50G crash) converted Antonelli’s defeat into victory. In MIA: Gasly flip + Hadjar (SC lap 7) decided the winner. In Canada: Russell abandoned from the lead with power unit failure. SC = highest-impact exogenous variable in 5/5 races of 2026.

Comparative Strategy Analysis

Tyre Strategy β€” AUS, CHN, JPN and MIA
// M = Medium Β· H = Hard Β· SC = Safety Car
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUSTRALIA β€” Albert Park
Medium
Hard
DriverStintPts
Russell
M
H
25
Antonelli
M
H
18
Leclerc
M
H
15
Hamilton
M
H
12
Norris
H
M
10
Verstappen
M
H
H
8
Bearman
M
H
6
Lindblad
H
M
4
Bortoleto
M
H
2
Gasly
H
M
1
Why stop early?
  • β–ΈAlbert Park has high wear on the medium tyre at the heavy braking chicanes.
  • β–ΈTwo safety cars (laps 11 and 16) created free pit windows. Mercedes used lap 11.
  • β–ΈThe hard tyre lasted 46 laps - a single stop was enough. Ferrari stayed out and paid the price.
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ CHINA β€” Shanghai
Medium
Hard
DriverStintPts
Antonelli
M
H
25
Russell
M
H
18
Hamilton
H
M
15
Leclerc
H
M
12
Bearman
M
H
10
Gasly
M
H
8
Lawson
M
H
6
Hadjar
H
M
4
Sainz
M
H
2
Colapinto
M
H
1
Why split strategies?
  • β–ΈShanghai long main straight - starting on the hard tyre protects in the slow corners and degrades less.
  • β–ΈSafety car from Stroll created the pit window: Ferrari reacted, Mercedes stayed out.
  • β–ΈHamilton and Leclerc battled each other and drained both electric systems - a cost of about 0.6 seconds per lap for 5 laps.
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JAPAN β€” Suzuka πŸ”΄
Medium
Hard
DriverStintPts
Antonelli
M
M
25
Piastri
M
H
18
Leclerc
M
H
15
Russell
M
H
12
Norris
M
H
10
Hamilton
M
H
8
Gasly
M
H
6
Verstappen
M
H
4
Lawson
M
H
2
Ocon
M
H
1
Why did the safety car decide everything?
  • β–ΈEveryone started on medium tyres. Ideal pit window: laps 18 to 25. Russell pitted on lap 21.
  • β–ΈSafety car on lap 22 with Antonelli still out = free pit stop and the lead. He built a 13.7 second gap.
  • β–ΈWithout the safety car, Piastri wins. Antonelli medium tyre in the second stint was faster in the closing laps.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIAMI β€” Miami International Autodrome
Soft
Medium
DriverStintPts
Antonelli
S
M
25
Norris
S
M
S
18
Piastri
S
M
S
15
Russell
S
M
12
Verstappen*
S
M
10
Hamilton
S
M
8
Colapinto
S
M
6
Leclerc**
S
M
4
Sainz
S
M
2
Albon
S
M
1
* +5s pen (pit exit white line) Β· ** +20s pen (track limits)
WHY SC DECIDED EVERYTHING?
  • β–ΈSC V.7 (Gasly flip + Hadjar crash) - free pit for those on used Soft.
  • β–ΈAntonelli pitted immediately, emerged on fresh Medium with full ERS charge.
  • β–ΈNorris/Piastri 2-stop (S->M->S) was faster in theory but lost track position to Mercedes 1-stop.

Pit Stop Analysis

πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUS β€” All Pit Stops
// Stationary time Β· 2 VSC windows
RkRkTimeLapContext
1Russell2.1s
11VSC free
2Antonelli2.4s
11VSC stack
3Verstappen2.6s16VSC #2
4Leclerc2.7s21Normal lap
5Hamilton2.9s21Normal lap
6Norris3.0s34Normal lap
7Bearman3.1s20Normal lap
8Gasly3.2s28Normal lap
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ CHN β€” All Pit Stops
// SC Stroll β†’ critical window
RkRkTimeLapContext
1Antonelli2.2s
SCSC free
2Russell2.5s
SCSC 2nd Merc
3Hamilton2.8sSCSC Ferrari
4Leclerc3.0sSCRear lock
5Bearman3.3sSCSC+queue
6Gasly3.4sSCSC+queue
7Lawson3.5sSCSC late
8Sainz3.6sSCSC late
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ JPN β€” All Pit Stops
// SC L22 Bearman crash
RkRkTimeLapContext
1Antonelli2.3s
22SC free→P1
2Piastri2.6s
211 lap before SC
3Russell2.7s211 lap before SC
4Leclerc2.9s22SC queue
5Norris3.1s22SC queue
6Hamilton3.2s22SC queue
7Gasly3.3s22SC queue
8Verstappen3.5s22SC late
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ MIA β€” All Pit Stops
// SC V.7 Gasly/Hadjar crash
RkRkTimeLapContext
1Antonelli2.2s
7SC free→P1
2Russell2.4s
7SC 2nd Merc
3Hamilton2.7s7SC Ferrari
4Verstappen2.9s7SC queue
5Norris3.0s7SC 1st stop
6Piastri3.1s7SC 1st stop
7Norris3.2s352nd stop
8Piastri3.3s342nd stop
Why are some pit stops faster?
// Multifactorial analysis Β· Data Engineering perspective
⚑
⚑ SAFETY CAR EFFECT

During a safety car period the tyre temperature is already warm, the pit lane is empty and the mechanics have more time to prepare. Pit stops under safety car conditions are on average 0.6 to 0.8 seconds faster than during normal racing. Confirmed in all 5 races of 2026.

πŸ”§
πŸ”§ CREW PREPARATION

The first pit stop in a race is always slower β€” the crew needs one run to get into rhythm. From the second stop onward they are fully calibrated and in sync. Russell’s 2.1s stop in Australia worked because the team had practised exactly that window before the race.

πŸ“
πŸ“ CAR POSITIONING

Stopping more than 5 cm off the target mark adds around 0.4 seconds. Hamilton in China had a slight rear misalignment β€” which explains his 2.8s stop compared to Antonelli’s 2.2s in the same pit box during the same safety car period.

Prediction β€” Monaco GP (Round 6)

Podium Forecast β€” Monaco GP
πŸ‡²πŸ‡¨ Rd 06 Β· 30 May–01 Jun 2026 Β· Street Classic
ELO + Recent Form Model
P1
Charles LeclercFerrari
38%
P2
Kimi AntonelliMercedes
30%
P3
Lewis HamiltonFerrari
15%
P4
George RussellMercedes
8%
P5
Oscar PiastriMcLaren
5%
P6
Max VerstappenRed Bull
3%
P7
Lando NorrisMcLaren
3%
P8
Isack HadjarRed Bull
2%
P9
Franco ColapintoAlpine
2%
P10
Pierre GaslyAlpine
1%

Key Monaco factors: Circuit de Monaco is the slowest and most technical on the calendar. Overtaking is virtually impossible β€” qualifying defines 80% of the result. Leclerc has exceptional home record. Antonelli seeks 5th consecutive win. Mercedes leads constructors with 219 pts. Ferrari needs victory to stay in contention.

Championship Trend
// Projection based on pace and reliability
Projection
1st
Kimi AntonelliMercedes
~310 pts
2nd
George RussellMercedes
~280 pts
3rd
Charles LeclercFerrari
~220 pts
4th
Lewis HamiltonFerrari
~185 pts
5th
Oscar PiastriMcLaren
~140 pts
6th
Lando NorrisMcLaren
~110 pts
7th
Pierre GaslyAlpine
~90 pts
8th
Max VerstappenRed Bull
~80 pts
9th
Oliver BearmanHaas
~75 pts
10th
Isack HadjarRed Bull
~55 pts

Warning: 5 races = growing sample size but still early. Antonelli dominates with 4 consecutive wins, but Monaco is Leclerc’s home circuit β€” the favorite shifts. McLaren suffered a strategic disaster in Canada. Red Bull showing signs of recovery with Verstappen podium.

How We Calculate Predictions
METHODOLOGY β€” APPLIED DATA SCIENCE
ELO Rating

Relative driver scoring system, updated after each race based on performance vs. expectations.

Recent Form

Exponential weighting on the last 4 races (decay factor Ξ»=0.7 β€” recent results count more).

Circuit

Track characteristics (average speed, straights, slow corners) cross-referenced with each driver's strengths.

PU Reliability

DNF rate per team. Red Bull: 2 DNFs in 4 GPs (Hadjar in AUS and MIA) β†’ 10% penalty on win probability.

SC Probability

Historical SC frequency per circuit. Miami: ~65%. Canada: ~72% β€” highest on the calendar.

ERS Efficiency

Estimated ERS deployment per race. Antonelli: 94% efficiency vs. grid average of 81%.

Educational note: This model uses public data. In real F1, proprietary telemetry data would be used (~300 sensors/car at 1,200Hz), ML models trained on thousands of hours of simulation and Monte Carlo with 10,000+ simulations per race. The same techniques apply in corporate Data Science β€” predicting KPIs, detecting anomalies, optimizing resources.

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Monaco GP Β· Circuit de Monaco
Round 06 Β· 30 May–01 Jun 2026 Β· Street Classic
Auto-updated after Canadian GP